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Modernization Strategy: Kazakhstan and China

2015-09-23  

 

HE, Chuanqi

China Center for Modernization Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences

 

There is an English proverb: the world is a ladder for some to go up and some to go down. In the past 200 years, some nations have gone up, some have gone down, and others have kept their position, and why and how? There are some theories to interpret this phenomenon. Modernization science presents its explanation to this issue, and here we discuss the modernization strategy.

 

I. Modernization Policy

Policy study of national modernization needs to give three answers: what is the level and position of the country in the world, how to promote the national modernization, and what is the key issue and right choice of national modernization at present.

       1. Evaluation of National Modernization

Know yourself and know your enemy, the victory is assured (Chinese proverb). An objective evaluation of the modernization process makes it possible to monitor dynamically the level of a country’s development and transformation and the change of its international status during this process. Modernization evaluation is an important basis for modernization-related decision-making. There are a lot of methods of modernization evaluation (Table 1).

 

Table1 Main Types of Modernization Evaluation (Examples)

Type

Purpose

Features

Level Evaluation

Relative level of modernization

International comparability, theoretical consistency, and continuity

Stage Evaluation

Development stage of modernization

Innovation Capacity Evaluation

Driving forces of modernization

International comparability, national comparability, and relativity

Competitiveness Evaluation

Competitive advantage of modernization

Performance Evaluation

Performance and progress of modernization

Policy applicability, pertinence, practicability, and timeliness

Diagnosis Evaluation

Gains and losses in the process of modernization and causes thereof

Theoretical Evaluation

Examining if the theoretical hypotheses about modernization are scientific

Exploratory, varying as per research needs

 

Generally, modernization evaluation should respect the laws governing modernization and evaluation rules. The following issues should be noted in doing the evaluation.

First, limited objective. The process of modernization is a nonlinear, complex historical process, and the system of modernization is a large, open, dynamic system, so it is impossible to cover every aspect in modernization evaluation. There should be priorities.

Second, rational evaluation indicators. Usually typical, critical, comparable and continuous statistical indicators are chosen.

Third, scientific evaluation method. Evaluation methods include qualitative evaluation, quantitative evaluation and comprehensive evaluation.

Fourth, quality of the data for evaluation. Usually statistics of international and official statistical agencies are adopted.

Fifth, relativity of evaluation results. Statistical methods and indicators may differ from country to country; some countries may have incomplete data for some years; there may be no statistics on some important new phenomena. All these may affect the evaluation results to some degree.

Sixth, objectivity and comparability of evaluation results. The influence of human factors should be minimized, for example, by using computers. Generally, the results of modernization evaluation should be of both historical and international comparability.

       2. Strategy of National Modernization

Strategies are means to achieve goals. Likewise, modernization strategies are the means to attain modernization goals. The modernization goal of advanced countries is to maintain the world’s leading or advanced level of development and transformation, while that of developing countries is to catch up with and reaching the world’s advanced level. Advanced countries differ considerably from developing ones in modernization strategies. A bridge between modernization theories and practices, modernization strategies represent an integral part of the modernization science and a critical component of modernization policies.

A modernization plan is a blueprint for modernization in a future period and is intended to achieve modernization goals. It is the operational approach of modernization strategies. There are a great variety of modernization plans, for example, strategic and implementation plans, national and national plans, field-specific plans, sector-specific plans and special plans, etc. In developing modernization plans, the laws governing modernization should be followed; objective conditions and the international environment should be taken into account. The different regions do need different strategy and planning, and it involve many elements (Table 2)

 

Table 2 Methods of Modernization Planning

Content

Features

Methods

Strategic Goals

Long-term goals

-

Basic Tasks

Tasks to be completed for achieving long-term goals

Task analysis

Stage-specific Goals and Tasks

Stage-specific goals, yearly goals and tasks

Decomposition of goals and tasks

Achievement of General Goals

Ways and methods of improving the level of modernization

Make measures according to principles and methods of national advancement

Achievement of individual goals

Ways and methods of enhancing characteristic and competitive advantages

Make measures to enhance characteristic and competitive advantages through monographic study

Avoidance of Side Effects

Ways and methods of reducing side effects of modernization

Make measures to solve or curb side effects through special study

Path Choice

Choice from three basic paths; subdivision of path

Raise specific indicators, path analysis and innovation

Model Choice

Model choice for different paths; subdivision of model

Model analysis, innovation and choice

Priority Choice

Make clear the key points of achieving strategic goals

Comparative analysis, principal component analysis, etc.

Policy Choice

Policy innovation and choice on the basis of theories and goals

Policy analysis and innovation; choice of policy and measures

Cost-benefit Analysis

Investment budgeting, output estimate and performance analysis

Performance evaluation

Note: Both strategic goals and stage-specific goals include three parts: general goals, individual goals and the avoidance of side effects. Basic tasks and stage-specific tasks refer to tasks necessary to achieve strategic goals and stage-specific goals, respectively.

 

First, goal analysis. It’s about analyzing strategic goals, defining basic tasks and setting stage-specific and yearly goals.

Second, path choice. It’s about choosing a basic path as well as the sub-paths to achieve the three types of goals.

Third, model choice. It’s about choosing appropriate models for achieving three types of goals, or making model innovation.

Fourth, priority choices. It’s about defining priorities in the three types of goals, and allocating resources accordingly.

Fifth, policy choice, including policy analysis and innovation, and choice of policy and measures.

Sixth, developing a complete plan, including goals, path, model, priorities, policy and performance evaluation.

A strategic plan of modernization generally includes strategic goals, tasks, principles, overall arrangement, priorities and measures.

An implementation plan of modernization should include yearly goals, tasks, priorities and measures.

       3. Priorities of National Modernization

The outstanding features of a modernization measure are its pertinence and timeliness. Different countries and regions may select appropriate, innovative policies and measures according to their own conditions. Policy innovation and measure selection should follow modernization laws and comply with the basic national conditions and international environment. The first modernization, the second modernization and the integrated modernization path differ from each other in policies and measures.

Generally, there are three roads of modernization in the 21st century for the different countries and regions. They are the first modernization path, second modernization path and integrated modernization path. The advanced countries and regions will select the second modernization path, the developing countries and regions will select other two paths in general.

The policy priorities of the first modernization path should be adjusted timely. Currently there are about 10 priorities (Table 3). Developing countries adopted the catch-up modernization path could also select the policy priorities from seven aspects such as advanced productivity, social progress, human development, value, labor, capital and technology.

 

Table 3 Policy Options of the first Modernization Path [3]

No.

Main Contents

1

Accelerate industrialization. Accelerate the transfer from agriculture to industry and service, increase effective labor and investment, actively bring in technology and capital, etc.

2

Advance urbanization. Speed up the migration of rural population into cities, strengthen the building of urban infrastructure, etc.

3

Promote democratization. Establish and perfect systems about democratic election, democratic legislation and democratic supervision, etc.

4

Increase social welfare. Build a welfare society, achieve the social goal of having each person and family enjoy insurance and welfare, etc.

5

Vigorously promote education development. Popularize compulsory education and secondary education, develop vocational education and higher education, etc.

6

Moderately develop science and technology, improve technological innovation capacity, do away with feudal and autocratic culture, etc.

7

Promote ecological modernization. While accelerating economic growth, protect the natural environment as well as the rational utilization of resources, achieve sustainable development, etc.

8

Promote informatization. Strengthen the building of information infrastructure, provide extensive information services, develop the information technology industry, etc.

9

Participate in globalization. Participate in international market competition, support multinational enterprises, develop e-commerce, establish free trade zones, etc.

10

Enhance national economic cooperation, promote the sharing of national knowledge and experience, etc.

Note: It includes some elements of second modernization in 21st century.

 

The policy priorities of the second modernization path should be adjusted timely. Currently, there are about 10 priorities (Table 4). Both of advanced and developing countries adopted the second modernization path, could select the policy priorities from seven aspects such as advanced productivity, social progress, human development, value, labor, capital and technology, although there should be some different between their choices.

 

Table 4 Policy Options of the Second Modernization Path [3]

No.

Main Contents

1

Improve national innovation capacity and increase the percentage of innovation value. Build an innovation network, optimize the policy on innovation, foster an innovation culture, enhance knowledge innovation, technical innovation, institutional innovation and concept innovation, and improve national knowledge infrastructure

2

Promote knowledgeablization. Develop knowledge industries, including knowledge production, knowledge and information dissemination, knowledge service industries and high-tech industries, popularize higher education, accelerate industrial transfer and upgrading, and increase the knowledge content and labor productivity of economy

3

Accelerate informatization and networking. Build information infrastructure, develop the information technology industry and build a network-based, learning society

4

Implement ecological modernization strategies. Coordinate economic growth and environmental protection and divorce economic development from environmental degradation, to help improve both economy and environment

5

Improve cultural creativity and competitiveness, vigorously develop cultural industries and improve the quality of cultural life

6

Promote suburbanization and urban upgrading as well as balanced urban-rural development

7

Economic globalization. Global operation, e-commerce, economy without boundaries, free trade zone, etc.

8

Distribution according to his contribution, adjustment as needed, and participation by knowledge capital and investment capital in net income distribution

9

Individualized democracy. Advocate tolerable, dialogue-based, consultative and direct democracy, and respect individualized choice

10

Risk management. It is necessary to establish mechanisms used to control risks in science and technology, rationality and decisions

 

The policy priorities of the integrated modernization path should be adjusted timely. Currently, there are about 10 priorities (Table 5). Developing countries adopted the integrated modernization path could also select the policy priorities from seven aspects such as advanced productivity, social progress, human development, value, labor, capital and technology.

 

Table 5 Policy Options of the Integrated Modernization Path [3]

No.

Main Contents

1

New industrialization. Develop industrialization, informatization, greening, globalization and industry transfer in a coordinated way, increase investment and labor efficiency, etc.

2

New urbanization. Develop urbanization, informatization, greening, internationalization and suburbanization in a coordinated way, build a society of balanced urban-rural development, etc.

3

Promote democratization. Perfect the democratic system, increase government efficiency and policy transparency, respect individualized choice, etc.

4

Accelerate informatization. Develop the information technology industry, promote the integration of telecom, radio & TV and the Internet, etc.

5

Promote knowledgeablization. Develop scientific and technological industries, knowledge dissemination and knowledge service industries, etc.

6

Economic globalization. Promote international trade, lower tariffs, promote the development of international economic cooperative zones and free trade zones, etc.

7

Build a learning society. Popularize compulsory education and secondary education, develop vocational education, distance education and higher education, etc.

8

Build an innovative country. Build innovation networks, optimize innovation policies, foster an innovation culture, improve enterprise innovation capacity, etc.

9

Build an environmentally-friendly society. Implement ecological modernization strategies, promote the disconnection of economic growth from environmental degradation, etc.

10

Distribution according to his contribution, adjustment as needed, and participation by knowledge capital and investment capital in net income distribution

 

II. Kazakhstan’s Modernization

At present, Kazakhstan is the member of the developing countries.

1. The stage of Kazakhstan modernization

According to the modernization science, the frontier process of world modernization can be divided into two major stages: the first and second modernization, between the 18th and 21st centuries. The main features of first modernization include industrialization, urbanization, democratization, rationalization, marketization and welfare etc. The features of second modernization include knowledgeablization, informatization, greening, globalization, individuation and diversification currently.

 Depending on the sign indicators, Kazakhstan is in the stage of the first modernization, and in the phase of mature in 2010 (Fig. 1). At the same time, Hungary and Russian Federation are in the stage of second modernization.

 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fig. 1 The stages and levels of world and Kazakhstan modernization in 2010

Note: P, A, I and K refers to primitive, agricultural, industrial, and knowledge respectively. S, D, M and T refers to the starting, developing, mature and transitional phase respectively. The civilization time was the time based on the track of the forerunner of the civilization.

 

2. The level of Kazakhstan modernization

The modernization indexes are the results of the evaluation of the world modernization process, and they comprise the first modernization index, the second modernization index and the integrated modernization index. They reflect the composite levels of modernization in the economic, social, knowledge and other sectors, but exclude the levels of modernization in the political field. The first modernization index can better reflect the degree of first modernization realization in the developing countries, the second modernization index can better indicate the actual levels of the developed countries, and the integrated modernization index can simultaneously express the relative levels of both the developed and developing countries. As different countries are in different phases of modernization, a combination of the three can fairly show the truthful levels of modernization in the world and in different countries.

 Table 6 states the modernization indexes of Kazakhstan from 2001 to 2010. Kazakhstan is a developing country and belongs to the class of preliminarily developed countries in 2010. At the same time, Hungary, Ukraine and Russian Federation belongs to the moderated developed countries, and both of them are also the developing countries (Table 7).

 

Table 6 The Modernization indexes of Kazakhstan from 2001 to 2010

Item

2001

2003

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

First modernization index (FMI)

85

86

87

94

95

96

98

99

Rank in 131 countries

67

66

65

51

51

49

46

46

Second modernization index (SMI)

41

42

48

49

50

48

49

48

Rank in 131 countries

48

50

49

47

45

53

54

56

Integrated modernization index (IMI)

44

44

46

48

49

46

49

48

Rank in 131 countries

57

57

58

56

57

62

59

65

 

Table 7 The modernization index of Kazakhstan, Russia and China in 2010

Item

Kazakhstan

Ukraine

Russia

Hungary

China

USA

Sweden

First modernization index (FMI)

99

94

100

100

92

100

100

Rank in 131 countries

46

61

43

-

62

-

-

Second modernization index (SMI)

48

57

71

67

47

109

104

Rank in 131 countries

56

41

29

32

59

1

3

Integrated modernization index (IMI)

48

54

66

68

46

97

94

Rank in 131 countries

65

53

36

33

70

1

5

 

3. The policy choice of Kazakhstan modernization

Kazakhstan is a preliminarily developed country and has a two-step objective. The first goal: to reach the level of moderately developed countries and SMI rank among the world’s top 40th.  The second goal: to reach the level of developed countries and SMI rank top 20th. Kazakhstan may choose the integrated modernization path (Fig. 2, Table 5).

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fig.2 The integrated modernization path for Kazakhstan and China

 

Kazakhstan should include 20% of innovation and 80% of learning as well as 80% of competition and 20% of regulation. The focus should be on increasing innovation efficiency, investment efficiency and human capital, promoting fair competition and rational distribution, popularizing high education and speeding up the informatization etc. Kazakhstan should focus on three issues: advanced productivity, social progress and human development (Table 8).

 

Table 8 Policy priorities for Kazakhstan modernization

Item

Policy priorities

Advanced productivity

Technological progress:20% of innovation and 80% of learning

To increase per capita innovation value and per capita labor value, etc.

To increase per capita effective and high-efficiency labor, reduce ineffective and low-efficiency labor, etc.

To raise levels of per capita capital, skills and management, etc.

To increase advanced technologies, reduce backward technologies, etc.

To promote the international cooperation, etc.

Social progress

Social fair:80% of competition and 20% of regulation

Distribution according to contribution, adjustment as needed, etc.

Human development

To promote fair competition and cooperation, etc.

To popularize high education and speeding up the informatization, etc.

 

III. China’s Modernization

At present, China is the member of the developing countries (Table 9). In 2010, the level of China’s modernization is little below Russia and Kazakhstan (Table 7), but the level of Beijing, shanghai and east regions of China is much higher. The integrated modernization path (Fig. 2 and table 5) is also the best way for China in the future, and focus on advanced productivity, social progress and human development (Table 10) etc.

 

Table 9 The Modernization indexes of China from 1950 to 2010

Item

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

First modernization index (FMI)

26

37

40

54

63

76

92

Rank in 131 countries

-

72

72

69

67

80

62

Second modernization index (SMI)

-

-

21

25

26

31

47

Rank in 131 countries

-

-

60

66

73

78

59

Integrated modernization index (IMI)

-

-

-

21

28

31

46

Rank in 131 countries

-

-

-

103

103

79

70

 

Table 10 Policy priorities for China modernization

Item

Policy priorities

Advanced productivity

Technological progress:50% of innovation and 50% of learning

To increase per capita innovation value and per capita labor value, etc.

To increase per capita effective and high-efficiency labor, reduce ineffective and low-efficiency labor, etc.

To increase per capita effective and high-efficiency investment, reduce ineffective and low-efficiency investment, etc.

To raise levels of per capita capital, skills and management, etc.

To increase advanced technologies, reduce low technologies, etc.

To promote the international cooperation, free-trade and invest etc.

Social progress

Social fair:80% of competition and 20% of regulation

Distribution according to contribution, adjustment as needed, etc.

Human development

To promote fair competition, cooperation and mutualism, etc.

To popularize high education and speeding up the informatization, etc.

 

IV. Conclusion

Modernization has been the frontier change and international competition of human civilizations since the 18th century. In this process, some have achieved enormous success, maintained the world’s advanced level and became advanced ones; others, despite their progress, have failed to reach the world’s advanced level and thus have became developing ones. Some have ascended to advanced from developing, while some have degraded to developing from advanced. Stories of success and failure emerge one after another.

National modernization is an international competition for advanced level.

All nations do need to select their way. Not to advance is to go back (English proverb) .

I would like to present my best wishes to Kazakhstan and China!

 

Reference

 

1. RGCMS (Research Group for China Modernization Strategies). China Modernization Report 2004: Regional Modernization. Beijing: Peking University Press, 2004.

2. Chuanqi He. Modernization Science: the Principles and Methods of National Advancement. Heidelberg: Springer, 2012.

3. Chuanqi He. Orient Renaissance: Three Roads to the Modernization. Beijing: Commercial Press, 2003.

 

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